Viejos datos para el plan del nuevo año

Plan EstratégicoAcaba el año y además de la necesidad de desarrollar un mecanismo de control de la actividad empresarial, puede que sea el mejor momento para la planificación estratégica del año próximo por diversos motivos relacionados con lo aprendido en estos meses, entre los cuales están:

  • los nuevos planes que se tendrán que poner en marcha para acometer otro nuevo año, en base al grado de cumplimiento o incumplimiento de los objetivos fijados para este ejercicio y
  • el conocimiento adquirido a lo largo del año que finaliza, suponiendo que se hayan analizado los datos que aporta la actividad de éste año

Toda la información que el negocio ha generado el presente ejercicio constituye una buena base para realizar el plan de negocio del próximo y configurar los planes de marketing, producción y económico-financiero, siempre basados en el análisis conjunto con los distintos factores que pueden modificar los objetivos propuestos para el nuevo año.

Con un breve análisis de algunas partidas de la cuenta de resultados del año que acaba, se pueden establecer varios elementos clave del plan estratégico del próximo ejercicio, que a medida que se desarrollen configurarán la planificación estratégica de la empresa para el nuevo periodo:

Ventas

La cifra anual de ventas aporta información del volumen de negocio del año y en base a ella se puede establecer un escenario global previsible para el próximo ejercicio, pero analizando con detalle esta cifra se puede obtener información relevante para definir dicho escenario con más precisión, concretamente analizando elementos como:

  • Estacionalidad de las ventas. En función del sector de actividad de la empresa, la cifra de ventas en determinados periodos puede ser sustancialmente distinta que en otros, como muestra el ejemplo reflejado en el gráfico adjunto, lo cual es de vital importancia evaluar para poder realizar la planificación de producción, tanto el nivel de recursos productivos requeridos para atender la demanda de dichos periodos, como los recursos financieros necesarios para la adquisición de dichos factores de producción.
Ocupación hotelera Madrid INE

Fuente: Ayuntamiento de Madrid. Datos basados en Encuesta de Ocupación Hotelera publicada por INE.

  • Segmentación por producto. El análisis de las ventas por producto ofrece información concreta de la aportación de cada producto al total de las ventas de la empresa, lo cual es de vital importancia para establecer la necesidad de modificar o sustituir los productos que menos volumen de ventas aporten a la cifra final, ya sea por la entrada de nuevas líneas de productos o por el incremento de la producción de los más vendidos.
  • Segmentación por cliente. La expectativa de venta por cliente es uno de los factores que determinan la estrategia comercial de la empresa, ya que tanto el volumen de ventas como la tipología de productos suministrados a cada cliente constituyen una información fundamental a la hora de establecer la oferta para el próximo ejercicio, la cual puede incluir acciones como:
  • incrementar la cantidad de productos consumidos por dichos clientes, mediante estrategias de venta con descuento por volumen (lo que supone el incremento de producción indicado en el punto anterior)
  • incluir en la oferta a los clientes nuevos productos desarrollados (también citado en el punto anterior)
  • incentivar la compra de productos en épocas de menor actividad (para lo cual es vital la información de la estacionalidad de las ventas)

Costes de las ventas

La determinación de los costes de las ventas es imprescindible para poder analizar los márgenes brutos de la actividad de la empresa, la cual debe establecer no sólo el valor del margen de contribución total de las ventas sino que aportará información detallada de los márgenes de cada producto, para posibilitar el análisis y la toma de decisiones ajustada a cada uno de ellos, en aspectos como:

  • Rentabilidad. El margen de contribución de cada producto puede hacer variar las estimaciones realizadas en el apartado de ventas, ya que los incrementos o reducciones de las cantidades producidas y vendidas deben mantener la necesaria correlación con los márgenes que aportan al ciclo de explotación, para no poner en peligro la viabilidad del negocio. Por tanto, estos aspectos identifican claramente la necesidad de establecer un análisis de los precios de venta de cada uno de los productos, ya que en el apartado Ventas únicamente se han citado análisis de valores globales por grupos de interés.

El análisis de estos aspectos puede mostrar determinados productos con alto índice de ventas y bajo margen de contribución y viceversa, lo cual exigirá un estudio detallado de la estrategia comercial y productiva que optimice la relación existente en cada caso.

  • Optimización. La rentabilidad de los productos no sólo debe estar basada en la determinación de un margen concreto sobre los costes de producción, sino que debe analizarse si los procesos productivos pueden ser optimizados para que manteniendo los márgenes de contribución objetivo se pueda ofrecer un precio de venta menor, en base a la reducción de los costes de producción imputados a cada producto,  lo cual mejorará el escenario competitivo de la empresa.

Dicha optimización debe ser evaluada tanto a nivel de procesos como de materias primas, ya que ambos factores deben ser analizados para poder establecer los posibles métodos de reducción de coste, concretamente:

  • a nivel de procesos es fundamental analizar los tiempos de producción y los costes de dichos tiempos para determinar los posibles cambios y mejoras que mejoren el rendimiento de la mano de obra y
  • en el caso de las materias primas se deberá establecer un análisis de los aprovisionamientos por grupos y proveedores, con el objetivo de poder negociar condiciones favorables de compra (estando estos aspectos influidos por la determinación de los tipos y cantidades de productos que se establecían en el apartado Ventas).

Costes fijos

Los costes fijos necesarios para el desarrollo de la actividad empresarial deben ser revisados, analizados y actualizados todos los ejercicios, ya que las diferentes estrategias determinadas en los anteriores apartados pueden hacer que sufran variaciones respecto a años anteriores.

Es vital que la imputación de dichos costes se realice de forma regular y precisa a lo largo de todo el periodo, para poder realizar un análisis concreto de las necesidades de financiación en cada periodo del ejercicio. Este capítulo no está sujeto directamente a la variación de las ventas por periodo y por ello deben plantearse escenarios económico-financieros ajustados a los valores mínimos que permitan la actividad de la empresa desde el inicio de la actividad, como mecanismo de mantenimiento de la estabilidad empresarial en todo el ejercicio.

Todo lo anterior muestra la importancia del control de gestión de la actividad empresarial, que determine variables de control del cumplimiento de objetivos, indicadores que puedan ser utilizados para establecer informaciones concretas, mecanismos de optimización y por extensión favorecer el cumplimiento del plan estratégico de la empresa y en este caso la información para empezar está al alcance de todo empresario en los estados contables de sus empresas, ya que los elementos analizados en los puntos anteriores se basan en valores que se encuentran incluidos en la cuenta de resultados y que únicamente ordenándolos de una forma concreta y rigurosa ofrecen un alto contenido de información evaluable para los gestores del negocio.

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